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  • Dan

Central limit of polling

A couple days ago I wrote about

ubiquity and plotting of bell curves.

Today for those who aren't so stat-devout

let's use it on pols' polls that we've observed.

Election nearing, pollsters cut subsets

of people they should call about their vote.

They ask, then publish averages. Pub gets

crude soundbite 'bout the size of Biden's moat.

There's many ways this can obscure the truth.

The one to highlight--bringing back our math--

is that the outcome in the voting booth

falls anywhere along the bell curve's path.

The average lead's a guess, can err both ways.

So mobilize your butt election day.

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